Poring over Major League Baseball season-win betting totals

A small flurry of activity at the betting windows ensued when the LVH sports book became the first joint in Las Vegas to post 2012 major league baseball team season-win totals last month. After baseball bettors took early positions on the opening numbers, prompting a few quick adjustments on the totals attached to a handful of teams, the lines on several other teams moved more gradually throughout the next several weeks. Here’s a look at the moves driven by that more recent action:

The Milwaukee Brewers opened at 83.5 victories and have been bet up to 85.5. The skinny: Reigning MVP Ryan Braun’s 50-game suspension was overturned just after season-win totals were posted in Las Vegas, but bettors stayed bullish on the Brewers even after the news had time to sink in. Early this week, for instance, Milwaukee’s total was adjusted upward again, from 85 to 85.5 wins. A deep starting rotation anchored by Zack Greinke and Yovani Gallardo is behind the unfaltering optimism.

The New York Mets opened at 70.5 victories and have been bet up to 72. The skinny: As a play on his last name, two-time Cy Young Award winner Johan Santana adopted the song “Smooth,” by the band Santana, as his introductory music before he takes the mound. Perhaps it should be “Hope You’re Feeling Better,” from the album Abraxas, instead. Santana is attempting to come back from surgery to repair a torn anterior capsule in his left shoulder, which kept him on the sidelines for the 2011 season. Santana is expected to be named New York’s Opening Day starter, but has looked shaky in his spring training outings. With the uncertainty surrounding Santana and the fact that the Mets are in heavy rebuilding mode, I don’t expect their season-win total to continue to rise.

The Toronto Blue Jays opened at 80 victories and have been bet up to 81.5. The skinny: It’s appropriate the upward tick in Toronto’s total has stayed largely under the radar. It’s likely based on the perception that a series of savvy draft picks and trades orchestrated by general manager Alex Anthopolous, an executive from the Moneyball mold, could pay dividends this season.

As always, bettors have the option of wagering either over or under the posted victory total on each team, risking $1.10 for each $1 they’re trying to win.

Las Vegas Weekly, March 28, 2012

http://www.lasvegasweekly.com/news/2012/mar/28/baseball-time-pore-over-team-season-win-totals/

Line shopping alive for bettors in downtown Las Vegas

The sports betting scene in Las Vegas has undergone plenty of changes in the past 10 or 15 years.

One aspect of the scene has held steady, though: The city’s downtown area remains the best place on the continent to access multiple, competing legal brick-and-mortar sportsbooks situated within easy walking distance of each other.


Read the full column here:
http://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=269373
Covers.com, March 27, 2012

Reviewing my publicly released NCAA basketball tournament bets

Here's a recap of all of my publicly released plays on the NCAA basketball tournament. All plays were released in columns published well before the games started and/or in a Las Vegas radio interview leading up to the tournament. The plays are graded against readily available betting lines:

Colorado vs. UNLV: WIN.

North Carolina State vs. San Diego State: WIN.

New Mexico vs. Long Beach State: WIN.

Belmont vs. Georgetown: LOSS.

St. Bonaventure vs. Florida State: WIN.

The ACC to win over 7.5 games: LOSS.

Overall, risking enough to win 1 unit on each play: 4-2, +1.3 units (ROI = 18.3 percent).

Overall, risking exactly 1 unit on each play: 4-2, +1.6 units (ROI = 27.2 percent).

The road to NCAA basketball tournament betting success

As the NCAA tournament progresses, pay close attention to teams that have demonstrated the ability to cover the point spread in games played away from their home court. For basketball bettors, a team’s propensity to cover the spread on the road can serve as a “buy sign” in analyzing its chances in an event like the NCAA tournament. In nearly every case, a tournament game will have many, if not all, of the characteristics of a road game—most notably, unfamiliar environs and an element of travel.

Certainly it’s not the job of a college basketball coach or his players to cover the point spread. Examining a team’s record against the spread (ATS) in road games, however, can be useful in gauging how well it lived up to expectations when playing away from the friendly confines of its own arena. 

The inverse holds true as well. Keep an eye on NCAA tournament teams that have performed poorly against the number in away games and look to “fade,” or bet against them as the tournament goes on.

I have identified a handful of teams that fit into one category or the other, and that I have a desire to take a position on at the betting windows.

(Minor discrepancies can show up in ATS records depending on how road games are defined. I use common sense. For example, I counted the November 19 Vanderbilt-North Carolina State game at East Rutherford, New Jersey, as an away game for both teams, even though the box score will likely indicate one of them had been designated the “home” team for official scoring purposes.)

I’m bullish on …

North Carolina State: Competing in its first NCAA tournament since 2006, the Wolfpack went 12-3 ATS this season in away games, including a 9-2 ATS mark as a road underdog. It’s worth noting that N.C. State opened as a 1-point underdog in its first tournament game Friday against San Diego State at the Wynn Las Vegas sports book, but was bet up to a favorite of 1 to 1.5 points on Selection Sunday.

New Mexico: The Lobos tended to reward their backers at the betting windows no matter where they were playing, going 22-8 ATS this season, including 12-2 in their most recent 14 games—and, perhaps more significantly, 12-5 ATS away from home. In their first tournament game against Long Beach State, New Mexico opened as low as a 3.5-point favorite at Cal Neva sports books Sunday, but was quickly bet up to as high as a 5-point favorite in Las Vegas. As long as the Lobos are alive, I’ll probably be looking to back them.

I’m bearish on …

UNLV: The Rebels were 2-10 ATS away from Las Vegas. Early support showed up for their first opponent, Colorado, driving the line at Wynn down from 5 to 4.5 on Sunday. By midweek, however, the line stood at 5 or 5.5 at most Las Vegas books.

Las Vegas Weekly, March 15, 2012

http://www.lasvegasweekly.com/news/2012/mar/15/road-ncaa-tournament-betting-success/

Scouting MLB pitchers for baseball bettors

Jeremy Hellickson, the reigning American League rookie of the year, is coming off a fine season in which he went 13-10 with a 2.95 ERA for the Tampa Bay Rays, striking out 117 batters in 189 innings.

Read the full column here:

http://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=267180

Covers.com, March 6, 2012

The pot-limit Omaha (PLO) poker scene in Las Vegas

In a 2007 book titled “The Full Tilt Poker Strategy Guide,” Chris Ferguson offered an apt characterization of the form of poker known as pot-limit Omaha:

“If you like to gamble, you will probably enjoy pot-limit Omaha. And if you like to gamble against people who like to gamble too much, pot-limit Omaha might be the game for you.”

Read the full column here:
http://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=266616


Covers.com, March 1, 2012