Seeing as we’re in the midst of debate season, it seems fitting to reference one of the most memorable quotes in modern political history, uttered by Admiral James Stockdale during the 1992 presidential campaign:
Read the full column here:
http://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=262800
Covers.com, Jan. 25, 2012
Wednesday, January 25, 2012
Saturday, January 7, 2012
Ranking sports betting money lines in Las Vegas sports books
Sports bettors can expect to find the most value for their wagering dollar at the following Las Vegas sports books, according to my review of basketball money lines at 13 major books: Cal Neva, Cantor, Lucky's, LVH and the South Point group.
Those joints are working with the smallest house advantage of the books surveyed. The smaller the house edge, the better it is for the gambler. The larger the house edge, the worse it is for the gambler.
Bringing up the rear in the review of basketball money lines are Caesars Palace and related properties, Leroy's, Station books and the Stratosphere group. Sports bettors are highly likely to find better bets by shopping elsewhere.
Following are highlights of the survey, with books listed from best to worst from a bettor's viewpoint:
Best money lines in Las Vegas: Cal Neva, Cantor, Lucky's, LVH, South Point group: These books earned top honors for their strong showing across the board, starting in the range in which underdogs are around +170 on the money line. For instance, Cal Neva and Lucky's price favorites at only -190 when the underdog is +170. Other examples of above-average pricing from this group include -230/+195 (Cantor), -250/+220 (Cantor), -200/+175 (Cal Neva, LVH, Lucky's) rather than the standard structure of -200/+170 elsewhere, etc. Bettors can expect to find a good selection of games with money lines offered as well as good to excellent value on the money lines themselves at these books.
Reviewing my 2011 NFL team regular-season wins
On July 16, 2011, I published my projections for regular-season win over/unders for all 32 NFL teams.
This was before any sports books, in Las Vegas or elsewhere, had posted their NFL regular-season win over/unders.
I even joked about it in a radio interview that week, stating that by putting my opinion out there first I was setting myself up for either praise or ridicule once the official, for-actual-betting numbers were released in Las Vegas and around the world.
Let's review:
As it turned out, of the 32 projected totals my numbers were either identical to, or within a half-game of, the actual Las Vegas odds on 28 of the teams. Of the four instances in which we differed, I was "right" twice (Eagles, Bengals) and "wrong" twice (Cardinals, Texans).
Narrowing it down further, my numbers differed with the actual odds by more than 1 full game in only two instances, both times by 1.5 games. I split in this category as well, "right" on the Bengals and "wrong" on the Cardinals.
At the same time, I projected there was about a 78 percent chance at least one team would win 13 regular-season games, and about a 73 percent chance at least one team would lose 13 games, and both of those things happened.
To my knowledge, no one else who publicly went on the record with their regular-season win projections for all 32 NFL teams before the oddsmakers did "agreed" with the official lines as closely as I did.
This was before any sports books, in Las Vegas or elsewhere, had posted their NFL regular-season win over/unders.
I even joked about it in a radio interview that week, stating that by putting my opinion out there first I was setting myself up for either praise or ridicule once the official, for-actual-betting numbers were released in Las Vegas and around the world.
Let's review:
As it turned out, of the 32 projected totals my numbers were either identical to, or within a half-game of, the actual Las Vegas odds on 28 of the teams. Of the four instances in which we differed, I was "right" twice (Eagles, Bengals) and "wrong" twice (Cardinals, Texans).
Narrowing it down further, my numbers differed with the actual odds by more than 1 full game in only two instances, both times by 1.5 games. I split in this category as well, "right" on the Bengals and "wrong" on the Cardinals.
At the same time, I projected there was about a 78 percent chance at least one team would win 13 regular-season games, and about a 73 percent chance at least one team would lose 13 games, and both of those things happened.
To my knowledge, no one else who publicly went on the record with their regular-season win projections for all 32 NFL teams before the oddsmakers did "agreed" with the official lines as closely as I did.
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