NFL over/unders: Wasn't NFL offense supposed to trend down?

This Las Vegas Weekly column examines how record scoring affected NFL over/under wagering:

Think back to the football preseason, when conventional wisdom had it that NFL offenses would be out of sync during the early part of the season, resulting in lower-scoring games. Quarterbacks and receivers would fail to have their all-important timing down, so that wisdom went, due to the layoff caused by the 133-day lockout. The chemistry of the offensive line, a subtle, often overlooked factor in how an NFL offense functions, would also be affected.

The theory sounded good at the time. Then it fell flat on its face.

The bottom line at the betting windows has reflected the upswing in offense. Betting the over in each NFL game this season has yielded a record of 29-18-1 (62 percent). That’s an impressive performance by the over, considering you’re making money picking 53 percent against a standard sports-betting line, and picking 55 percent over time puts you in world-class gambling company.

During the first two weeks of the regular season, scoring was not only up, it was breaking records. NFL teams scored 1,502 points over the first two weeks, recording 172 touchdowns—both all-time highs. The league’s continued emphasis on passing played a big role in the early scoring burst. Quarterbacks racked up 15,771 net passing yards, another NFL record for the season’s first two weeks.

Let’s say you believe the NFL has passed some tipping point and offenses are destined to become even more pass-happy, with scores continuing to rise. Let’s say you think the pass-first philosophy will become even more prevalent thanks to rule adjustments that serve to protect receivers as well as quarterbacks, perhaps at the expense of defenders. As a bettor, how do you play it from here?

First, realize that oddsmakers and the betting marketplace are responding to the surge in scoring. In Week 1, the average over/under on the betting board was 40.5 points. In Week 2, it was 42.4 points. In Week 3, it had crept up to 43.7 points, and only six games finished over the total compared with 10 that went under.

For Week 4, the average over/under in an NFL game is 44 points. So the market is adjusting. It’s up to you as a handicapper—and this is the tricky part—to determine if the market has adjusted enough.

Las Vegas Weekly, Sept. 28, 2011

http://www.lasvegasweekly.com/news/2011/sep/28/betting-hey-wasnt-offense-supposed-trend-down-nfl-/

New sports betting show 'The Linemakers' isn't speaking 'Greek'

Let’s face it: The history of sports betting shows on television is not pretty. Oldsters among us still recall the flameout of Jimmy “the Greek” Snyder, the first prominent personality to discuss football betting before a national network audience. More recently, we’ve been subjected to basic cable hucksters attempting to con the gullible and the feeble-minded into paying for worthless football predictions. Now and then, a TV hack will don a wizard’s hat and offer his “fearless forecast.”

Given the dismal track record, it’s not surprising producers have been hesitant to take a chance on a TV sports betting program.

Enter The Linemakers, a promising new entry in the field that made its debut this month on Discovery HD Theater (Cox channel 1687). Taped each Tuesday at the South Point and airing Friday evenings, The Linemakers features a panel discussion on sports betting among a group of Nevada sports book industry insiders. The lineup includes Lou D’Amico, Vinny Magliulo, Kenny White, Richie Baccellieri, Rick Herron and Jimmy Vaccaro. Brian Blessing hosts.

The titular linemakers review the previous weekend’s football action from a betting angle and look ahead to the coming weekend’s games, discussing point spreads in a professional, measured manner with some organic doses of humor. Nothing seems forced, and the industry veterans know their stuff.

The conversation in the show’s first episode focused on the basics of sports betting and probably seemed overly rudimentary to a Las Vegas audience. The second installment delved into some meatier concepts. For example, the crew pointed out that when Utah State nearly upset Auburn, the Aggies were an underdog of as high as 14-1 on the money line.

“We know the topic, but it’s a lot of work to gather your thoughts, put them in order and get a good flow to it,” Baccellieri told me. “They send us a segment sheet with an outline of the show on Friday, so throughout the weekend I’m making notes of key points on the sheet. Then when we get started Tuesday, hopefully we’re all on the same page.”

“I think we have to find an audience of people somewhere in the middle,” Baccellieri said. “They’re not in the inner circle of the business, but they understand what sports betting’s like and they enjoy it and want to know more. That’s a pretty broad range of people.”

Las Vegas Weekly, Sept. 14, 2011

http://www.lasvegasweekly.com/news/2011/sep/14/new-sports-betting-show-linemakers-isnt-speaking-g/

Teams, betting trends to watch early in the NFL season

This Las Vegas Weekly column contained an early warning sign about the troubles the Philadelphia Eagles would face in 2011:

The splendid novel Rabbit Is Rich, for which John Updike earned his first Pulitzer Prize, contains a scene set late in the summer of 1979 in which the protagonist lights a fire using a Philadelphia newspaper’s sports page as kindling. The headline reads, “Eagles Ready.” Coincidentally, in the real world, the September 1, 1979, edition of The Gold Sheet handicapping newsletter included a prescient treatise on how various types of injuries affect the point spread in NFL games. The advice it imparts remains valid.

The Eagles are the second choice in sports books, behind only the Green Bay Packers, to win the NFC championship. Yet perhaps no team will draw more scrutiny early in the season than Philly, primarily due to uncertainty about the team’s offensive line. Two rookies, right guard Danny Watkins and center Jason Kelce, will be starting for the Birds, with former left guard Todd Herremans moving to right tackle. Only left tackle Jason Peters will return to start in the same spot on the line.

Late in the summer of 2011, as we get “Back to Football,” to use the NFL’s hackneyed slogan, oddly enough the readiness of the Philadelphia Eagles and a spate of crucial injuries rank among the top concerns in the collective psyche of sports bettors. The more things change …

The linemen have struggled to protect quarterback Michael Vick in preseason games, an inauspicious sign for a team that opens the regular season with consecutive games in unfriendly domes at St. Louis and Atlanta. Those games could set the tone for the season for the Eagles, projected to win 10.5 games by oddsmakers. By the way, after Harry Angstrom lit his fire, ominously, he watched “the words “Eagles Ready” ignite and blacken, the letters turning white on the crinkling ash,” in Updike’s inimitable prose.

The status of Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning, meanwhile, has dominated NFL injury news. The Colts’ opener at Houston has been taken off the betting board in Las Vegas. That column in The Gold Sheet, however, advised bettors to focus on “cluster injuries”—an early use of a phrase still commonly employed today—rather than injuries to high-profile players.

“Cluster injuries,” which by definition hit several players outside of the so-called skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver), are often overlooked in the betting marketplace. Early this season, for instance, bettors should keep an eye on the health of the Minnesota Vikings’ banged-up linebacking crew.

Elsewhere in the NFL, Oakland’s Hue Jackson faces the most pressure of any first-year head coach. The Raiders, installed as a small underdog at Denver in their opener, won eight games a year ago and have an over/under of 6.5 wins attached to them in sports books. It’s doubtful 6.5 victories would satisfy irascible team owner Al “Just Win, Baby” Davis.

Past performances suggest that about half of last season’s 12 NFL playoff teams will fail to qualify for postseason play this year. The Houston Texans and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the two most intriguing teams hoping to make a run at the playoffs after falling short a year ago.

Houston, featuring a potent offense and a suspect defense, is an attractive choice to win the Super Bowl at odds of 25-1 in Las Vegas sports books. Knocking off the Colts, with or without Manning, in Week 1 could place the Texans on the right track.

Tampa opens with six consecutive games expected to be close, with likely spreads of 2 points or fewer. The Bucs then travel to play the Chicago Bears in London—another city with rampant legal football betting, but one that has somehow, mysteriously, managed to remain in the good graces of the NFL.

Las Vegas Weekly, Sept. 1, 2011

http://www.lasvegasweekly.com/news/2011/sep/01/trends-players-and-teams-watch-early-nfl-season/