Betting college football season-win totals

This Las Vegas Weekly column also contains an update to a previously published take on a college football season-win total:

Sports gamblers are the ultimate information hogs. We voraciously devour news regarding team personnel, potential lineup changes, game plans and other tidbits that can help us make wiser decisions at the betting window. We find ourselves in a familiar jam when conducting research before the start of a new season, however, particularly in college sports. Even professionally produced preseason team previews tend to have an overly optimistic bent.

Anyone reading up on college football teams this time of year, for instance, has surely noticed that all but the most hopeless programs in the nation are being hyped as legitimate bowl-game contenders. It’s reminiscent of Garrison Keillor’s fictional Lake Wobegon, where all the children are above average.

Fortunately, we can rely on Las Vegas betting lines to serve as an equalizer, offering true believers an ideal opportunity to put up (their money) or shut up.

College football team regular-season victory over/unders, recently released in several sports books, reveal four teams primed for a fall this season after strong showings a year ago: Auburn, Nevada-Reno, Michigan State and TCU.

Auburn, which won 12 regular-season games last year, opened at just 6 victories, over minus 155 (bet $1.55 to net $1) at the Las Vegas Hilton sports book. (The Tigers also won two postseason games, but they don’t count for the purposes of this proposition.) UNR, which lost several key players, including quarterback Colin Kaepernick and running back Vai Taua, won 12 regular-season games last year but opened at 8 victories for 2011.

Michigan State, coming off an 11-win season, has an over/under of 7.5 attached to it. And TCU, facing a challenging schedule after winning 12 regular-season games last year, opened at 9 victories.

Those are the largest projected drops of the 35 college teams on the board at the Hilton.

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In my column from June 22, before any sports books posted college football team season-win totals, I wrote that I would likely be interested in betting the “over” on Boise State when the odds were released.

The Las Vegas line on Boise’s regular-season victory total stands at 10.5 with a premium on the over. For example, sports books at all Station Casinos properties opened it at 10.5, over minus 130.

That’s roughly equivalent to my original projection of 11, with a premium on the under. So, put me on the record with a play of Boise to win more than 10.5 games.

Las Vegas Weekly, Aug. 17, 2011

http://www.lasvegasweekly.com/news/2011/aug/17/need-clear-picture-college-football-look-betting-l/

Early NFL betting 'way ahead' of pace: Oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro

The impact of the resolution of the NFL’s labor dispute has reverberated through Las Vegas, alleviating a bottled-up demand for betting action among well-bankrolled “wise guys” and casual gamblers alike. “The appetite for football in this town is simply unbelievable,” veteran oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro says. “People love this freakin’ NFL.”

Vaccaro, spokesman for Lucky’s race and sports books, says wagering on the forthcoming NFL season is “way ahead” of the amount bet by this time last year. Business at the windows is exceeding last year’s pace in terms of the number of betting tickets issued, as well as total handle, an indication that tourists, local recreational players and high-rollers have all been inspired to back up their early NFL opinions with cash.

A flurry of personnel moves throughout the NFL followed the conclusion of the lockout, with more than a few high-profile players changing teams via trades or free agency. “Any time you see that kind of activity, it absolutely does wonders for your future book,” Vaccaro says. “The ‘smart guys’ jumped in and took a few positions right away. But the overall ticket count is way up, too. As a bookmaker, you’ve got to love all this activity.”

Separate deals involving a pair of quarterbacks, Kevin Kolb and Donovan McNabb, prompted movement in Week 1 point spreads. Almost immediately after Arizona acquired Kolb from Philadelphia, Lucky’s took two $3,000 bets on the Cards in their September 11 opener against Carolina. Arizona opened as a 3-point favorite and is now favored by 4.5.

“We took a bet at 3.5 and we took a bet at 4,” Vaccaro says. “Kolb may or may not be any good, but people realize he’s better than what they had last year.”

When Minnesota landed McNabb in a trade with the Washington Redskins, Lucky’s accepted a similarly sized wager on the Vikings plus 9.5 points in their opener at San Diego. Support for the Vikings has driven the line down to 8.5 points.

“We all expected they would get a deal done to end the lockout,” Vaccaro said. “Once it actually got done, you could really feel the anticipation in the air. People got off their seats, they got out of their homes and they came in to bet.”

Las Vegas Weekly, Aug. 3, 2011

http://www.lasvegasweekly.com/news/2011/aug/03/betting-nfl-wagering-way-ahead-last-years-pace/