The real story on football-betting hold rates

Despite all-too-common instances of media hype, sports books have achieved a fairly consistent rate of return on football wagering recent football seasons. Their hold rates are pretty lucrative as well, considering the house edge on a standard straight bet is only -- or should I say "only?" -- approximately 4.5 percent. Now, about those hold rates on football parlay cards ...

Every so often during the football season, a quotation from a Nevada sports book manager will show up in the media intending to describe how the book fared during a weekend of gambling action. It usually goes something like this: “Well, the house did very well on Saturday, but the bettors killed us on Sunday.” Alas, the actual meaning of those comments is the same as Michael Corleone’s final offer to Senator Pat Geary. Nothing.

Football wagering in Nevada sports books accounts for about 44 percent of the total sports betting handle here, which exceeded $2.7 billion last year. Despite inconsequential statements from industry flacks, it turns out recent performances by Nevada sports books in football have been consistent.

With the NFL’s owners and players mired in a labor impasse that could jeopardize the forthcoming season, it seems an appropriate time to review some figures on football betting in Nevada that do have substance. 

In the 2010-11 football season, Nevada books won $63.6 million from gamblers, holding 5.3 percent of the total of $1.2 billion wagered, according to the state Gaming Control Board. In 2009-10, books won $67.7 million, holding 6.2 percent of $1.1 billion wagered. And in 2008-09, books won $57.2 million, holding 5.2 percent of $1.1 billion wagered.

All figures encompass the entire football season, from the preseason schedule through the Super Bowl, and combine betting action on college and pro football. The Gaming Control Board does not track NFL betting separately.

Perhaps more startling are parlay card figures, which are tracked separately. This past football season, the state’s sports books won $17.9 million on parlay cards, holding 33 percent of the total $54.7 million wagered on the cards. In 2009-10, the books also held 33 percent of the handle, and their hold rate was 32 percent in 2008-09.

By way of comparison, the hold rate on Megabucks slot machines last year was “only” 12.5 percent. The worst table game for players, three-card poker, commanded a hold rate of 28.2 percent.

Keep those stats in mind when you’re filling out a parlay card this football season … if there is one.

Las Vegas Weekly, May 24, 2011

http://www.lasvegasweekly.com/news/2011/may/24/do-nevada-sports-books/

Betting NBA propositions on individual players

Not specifically addressed here is the question of whether the 30-cent line on individual NBA player props (for example, minus 115 on either "over" or "under") used by some sports books is too steep:

In every NBA playoff game, some Las Vegas sports books offer propositions on how many points several individual players on each team will score. Gamblers have the option of betting “over” or “under” the posted total. When analyzing these props, I like to examine the defense of the opposing team—specifically, how many points a game it allows compared with the NBA average. 

As an illustration, let’s consider the line on Oklahoma City point guard Russell Westbrook in Game 4 of the Nuggets-Thunder series Monday. Gamblers in Las Vegas could bet on whether Westbrook would score more or fewer than 21.5 points. Westbrook was facing a Denver defense that allowed 102.7 points a game this season, more than 3 percent higher than the league average. This led me to believe Westbrook would tend to amass more points than usual in the game.

Westbrook scored an average of 21.9 points a game this season. In making my prediction, I increased that total by 3 percent, or 0.7 points. That’s not an insignificant amount, by the way. As in nearly all forms of sports betting, wagering on individual player props is a game of inches. Even a half-point carries a lot of weight. My projection of 22.6 points for Westbrook put me on the “over.”

In the same game, oddsmakers set a line of 10.5 points for Oklahoma City’s Serge Ibaka. Considering Ibaka scored 9.9 points a game this season and was facing a Denver defense that allows more points than average, I would make the line about 10.2, so it was “under” or pass for me here. Hypothetically, I would have bet Ibaka “over” 9.5 points if I had the opportunity.

Of this year’s 16 NBA playoff teams, only the Knicks allowed more points a game, relative to the league average, than the Nuggets. In predicting the performance of individual players as the NBA playoffs progress, bettors should play close attention to the following teams: The Celtics allowed 8.5 percent fewer points than the league average; the Bulls allowed 8.3 percent fewer points; the Magic allowed 5.8 percent fewer points; the Hornets allowed 5.5 percent fewer points. Of course, savvy bettors will also incorporate factors such as the expected pace of a game and potential lineup shuffles into their predictions. Emphasizing the opposing defense, however, is an excellent starting point that can yield a strong baseline projection. Incidentally, Westbrook went over with room to spare (30 points), though Ibaka did, too (13).

Las Vegas Weekly, April 27, 2011

http://www.lasvegasweekly.com/news/2011/apr/27/how-bet-smart-nba-players/