Backing UConn in NCAA tournament

This Las Vegas Weekly column offers a postmortem of sorts on Virginia Commonwealth's NCAA tournament run, from a betting perspective, and a recommendation to bet on UConn:

Just before the start of the NCAA basketball tournament, oddsmakers installed Virginia Commonwealth as a 125-1 shot to make the Final Four. Now that VCU has done just that, it’s clear gamblers who believed in the Rams could have fared much better by betting them on the money line in each of their games, rolling over the profits after each victory.

Let’s say you had the foresight to back VCU all along. (Full disclosure: I certainly did not.) A $10 wager at 125-1 would yield a profit of $1,250. The same $10 investment would have returned much more, however, using a money-line parlay strategy. A bet on the money line is on the outright winner of a game, regardless of the point spread.

VCU won five games en route to the Final Four, upsetting USC, Georgetown, Purdue, Florida State and Kansas. The money line on VCU in those games ranged from plus 160 (bet $1 to net $1.60) to plus 700. Crunch the numbers, and you’ll find a money-line parlay on VCU would have paid 855-1, or $8,550 for our hero’s $10 speculative venture.

The lesson here is not that we should have seen this coming and been all over VCU. It’s that once you have decided to invest a few bucks in a sporting event, there’s frequently a smart way and a dumb way to make essentially the same bet.

Let’s see how a similar strategy would work for the remainder of the tournament. After last weekend’s NCAA action, most sports books had VCU in the range of 9-2 to 7-1 to win the national title, making the Rams the longest shot on the board behind Kentucky, Connecticut and Butler. VCU is a 2.5-point underdog Saturday against Butler, with a money line of plus 125. If the Rams advance, they will meet either Kentucky or UConn in Monday’s championship game. I estimate the money line on VCU would be just north of plus 200 against either team, meaning a two-leg money-line parlay on the Rams would pay about 5.75 to 1—smack in the middle of VCU’s current odds of 9-2 to 7-1.

You could fine-tune your projected payout if you believe the Rams are slightly more likely to face Kentucky, a 2-point favorite Saturday against UConn, if they do advance to the title game. I see the Kentucky-UConn game as a toss-up, though. Yes, that does make me a “buyer” of UConn plus 2 points Saturday.

Las Vegas Weekly, March 30, 2011

http://www.lasvegasweekly.com/news/2011/mar/30/smart-way-bet-dogs/

Tips on NCAA tournament betting

This Las Vegas Weekly column contains some solid original research on how travel affects point-spread results in the NCAA tournament. Also, my two "go against" teams here finished 1-2 against the spread in the tournament. Not bad:

Three hits from the heart, son, on the NCAA basketball tournament, now playing at a sports book near you:

1) I won’t know until the tournament is over whether the Big East deserved its unprecedented 11 bids. But I’ll make the call by relying on an objective formula, not the hot air released by the sports-media windbags. The 11 teams from the Big East received seeds ranging from No. 1 (Pittsburgh) to No. 11 (Marquette). I assigned each team a projected number of tournament victories based on how teams with that seed have performed in past years. No. 1 seeds are expected to win 3.4 games, for example, No. 2 seeds are expected to win 2.4 games, and so on, down to one-half of a win for No. 11 seeds. This method yielded a projected 17.1 victories for the Big East teams. If they exceed that total, no one should complain about the 11 bids.

Yes, you can bet on the number of wins by each conference in Las Vegas sports books. Not all books offer the proposition, but those that are on the ball do.

2) It has become common for pundits to suggest that travel can affect a team’s chances of winning in the tournament. In Las Vegas, of course, a game’s outright winner is often of secondary importance at best. We want to know who covered. It turns out that tournament travel is a critical factor even after accounting for the point spread, which usually acts as the great equalizer.

In the two most recent tournaments, for instance, teams playing within 150 miles of their campus went 14-7 against the spread. Teams playing more than 1,000 miles from home went 48-54 against the number. So backing the de-facto home teams and playing against the far-from-home teams yielded a record of 68-55 against the spread, better than 55 percent. That’s more than enough to get the money.

3) If you think eking out a lot of victories in close games means a team has character or heart or something, you’re watching too many sports movies. I want to bet against those teams.

Last year New Mexico was 10-1 in games decided by five or fewer points before going 0-2 against the spread in the tournament. This year I’m wary of Georgia (8-1 in games decided by four or fewer points) and Notre Dame (6-0 in games decided by five or fewer).

Las Vegas Weekly, March 16, 2011

http://www.lasvegasweekly.com/news/2011/mar/16/objective-analysis/

Where to catch NCAA tournament action in Las Vegas

This Las Vegas Weekly column on March Madness in Las Vegas alludes to a great Steve Martin quote and reveals the best free show in Las Vegas (hint: not the Bellagio fountains):

I recently interviewed a couple of handicappers who rely heavily on computer modeling to make their NCAA basketball tournament predictions. They spoke of using advanced mathematical techniques in their quest to find the optimal tournament wagers. Their enthusiasm was infectious, and I couldn’t wait to share my newfound knowledge. Then I noticed the big drawing point of a Las Vegas promotion geared toward March Madness gamblers was … wait for it … $1 hot dogs.

Sensing a disconnect, I was reminded of the words of renowned bracketologist Steve Martin, who said he learned early on how important it was never to alienate the audience. “Otherwise,” he cracked, “I would be like Dimitri in La Condition Humaine.” In other words, the overwhelming majority of the bettors and fans who will pack Las Vegas sports books, bars and restaurants throughout the NCAA tournament are not here to study spreadsheets.

They’re here for a party.

Neither the upscale tournament soirees for well-heeled gamblers at the big Strip resorts nor the $1 hot dog feasts for the rest of us appeal to me. With so many tournament games taking place on the same day, I cannot be confined to one particular casino. Betting lines, after all, are fluid, continually changing. They often vary by casino property. As someone who has been known to beat myself up for betting under 126 points when unbeknownst to me there was a 126 ½ available at a book across the street, I need to be able to shop around for the best number.

Apt comparisons have been made between March Madness and the Super Bowl in Las Vegas, with the total betting handle as well as the energy level generated by the two events roughly in the same ballpark—or casino ballroom, as it were. I’m going to try to find a middle ground between the hardcore sports bettors and the partiers in recommending a spot to make the most of March Madness in Las Vegas.

So give me Downtown Las Vegas for the tournament, Fremont Street, with its multiple competing sports books within easy walking distance of each other.

The variety of betting lines isn’t the only reason I’m going Downtown. I admit I find it oddly moving when the crowd at the Fremont Street Experience spontaneously sings along with every word of “American Pie” when it plays on the canopy. Emphasis on “oddly.”

The Fremont Street Experience is also home to the best free show I have seen anywhere in Las Vegas this year: A loud, heated, extended argument between a guy dressed like “The Crow” and a bearded gentleman holding a poster board extolling the benefits of following Jesus. Sorry, Bellagio fountains.

Las Vegas Weekly, March 16, 2011

http://www.lasvegasweekly.com/news/2011/mar/16/dont-go-mad-march/