Best, worst against the spread in NFL & recap

Two teams remain undefeated against the point spread in the NFL: the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Kansas City Chiefs, each 3-0 against the number.

Only one team has failed to cover the spread in any of its games: the Carolina Panthers, 0-3 against the number.

In a discussion of ATS records on the Chris Andrews Show (Fox Sports Radio 1450-AM, Reno) last week, I recommended four plays for this past football weekend and won three of them. All four were underdogs.

I hit with the Cleveland Browns against the Baltimore Ravens, Arkansas against Alabama, and Cal against Arizona. I missed with the Detroit Lions against the Minnesota Vikings.

Sept. 28, 2010

Offshore political odds update

Offshore sports book Pinnacle has betting lines on two U.S. Senate races, with Barbara Boxer (-183) favored against Carly Fiorina (+155) in California and Harry Reid (-159) favored against Sharron Angle (+136) in Nevada.

Discounting the vigorish, those lines suggest Boxer has a 63 percent chance of winning and Reid has a 60 percent chance of prevailing.

Considering Pinnacle books real-money wagers from bettors worldwide (though it officially does not deal to U.S. customers), I consider its odds more reliable than the opinions of any pundits or pollsters.

Sept. 28, 2010

Cal Neva, Lucky's, Las Vegas Hilton sports books top survey of football money lines in Las Vegas

The Cal Neva group of sports books in Nevada offers football bettors the most bang for their buck, according to my study of NFL and college football money lines available at 14 major books.

Cal Neva is working with the smallest house advantage of the books surveyed. The smaller the house edge, the better it is for the gambler. The larger the house edge, the worse it is for the gambler.

Lucky's sports books, the Las Vegas Hilton and the M Resort also fared well in the survey, offering strong value to football bettors. The Golden Nugget, all Station properties, the Venetian and the Hard Rock brought up the rear in the study of football money lines.

Following is a recap of the results, with the deciding factors highlighted. The sports books are listed from best to worst from a gambler's perspective:

Following up on correlated parlays in college football wagering

On Tuesday night's viewfromvegas.com podcast, I was asked how to identify college football parlays in which the point spread and the betting total are likely correlated, possibly offering an advantage to the bettor against the house.

The multiplier that many sharp bettors rely upon is 2.3.

That means if the point spread in a game times 2.3 is greater than the betting total, we're likely in correlated-parlay territory.

For example, this week Ohio State is favored by 28 points against Marshall. The betting total is 47 points.

Bettors should play a two-leg parlay of Ohio State -28 and over 47. An equally appealing alternative would be to play Marshall +28 with under 47. (We're assuming bettors can find a book that will accept this kind of action.)

Sept. 1, 2010

Week 1 college football betting lines: Examining moves off early Las Vegas numbers

In June, the Golden Nugget sports book in Las Vegas posted betting lines on 200 college football "games of the year."

More than a dozen opening-week games were included.

For comparison's sake, here's how the point spreads on some of those Week 1 games have been adjusted since, with the current line followed by the early opener: