As I have written in years past, I use a variety of factors in predicting NFL teams' season victory totals, including:
-- Running a basic "Pythagoras" based on the previous season's points scored and points allowed for each team to isolate any teams that might have been particularly unlucky or teams that might have been playing over their heads. (PF^2/PF^2 + PA^2)
Friday, July 23, 2010
Thursday, July 22, 2010
Projected 2010-11 NFL standings
Following are my projected 2010-11 NFL standings for the regular season.
It's worth noting that all of my projected team season-win totals are less than 1.5 games off compared with the current Las Vegas odds on season-win over/unders. Most are within 1 game. That's just how it worked out.
For example, I have Arizona winning 9 games. The betting line is 7.5, but with a premium of at least -125 on the "over," indicating a difference of less than 1.5 wins.
These predictions put me on seven season-win plays, which are listed after the projected standings ...
It's worth noting that all of my projected team season-win totals are less than 1.5 games off compared with the current Las Vegas odds on season-win over/unders. Most are within 1 game. That's just how it worked out.
For example, I have Arizona winning 9 games. The betting line is 7.5, but with a premium of at least -125 on the "over," indicating a difference of less than 1.5 wins.
These predictions put me on seven season-win plays, which are listed after the projected standings ...
Friday, July 16, 2010
Tracking the luckiest, unluckiest pitchers in major league baseball from a betting angle
In determining baseball's luckiest and unluckiest pitchers, I use a stat invented by author Tom Tango known as FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching.
FIP aims to describe how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of his teammates' fielding or other factors beyond his control. The formula for FIP is ugly. It appears at the end of this item.
Comparing FIP to actual ERA and calculating the difference is one way to track lucky and unlucky pitchers.
FIP aims to describe how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of his teammates' fielding or other factors beyond his control. The formula for FIP is ugly. It appears at the end of this item.
Comparing FIP to actual ERA and calculating the difference is one way to track lucky and unlucky pitchers.
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
Why does the Washington Post promote illegal gambling? (And it's not the only offender)
Media reports on sports betting and other gambling topics are notoriously sloppy, erroneous or just plain weird.
This one from the Washington Post this week is no exception.
This one from the Washington Post this week is no exception.
Latest odds to lead NFL in receiving yards
Defending champ Andre Johnson, at odds of 5-1, and Larry Fitzgerald (6-1) are the front-runners to lead the NFL in receiving yards this season, according to betting lines at the Venetian sports book on the Las Vegas Strip.
Notable line moves: Since the prop was posted, the line on Calvin Johnson has dropped to 16-1 from 18-1. Anquan Boldin has dropped to 30-1 from 35-1. Golden Tate has dropped to 250-1 from 300-1. Tate is still the longest shot on the board.
Notable line moves: Since the prop was posted, the line on Calvin Johnson has dropped to 16-1 from 18-1. Anquan Boldin has dropped to 30-1 from 35-1. Golden Tate has dropped to 250-1 from 300-1. Tate is still the longest shot on the board.
Latest odds to lead NFL in rushing yards
Defending champ Chris Johnson has emerged as a 9-2 betting favorite to lead the NFL in rushing yards this season, just ahead of Adrian Peterson at 5-1.
The price on Johnson is down slightly from an opener of 5-1 according to odds at the Venetian sports book on the Las Vegas Strip.
Notable line moves: Since the prop was posted, the line on Frank Gore has dropped to 12-1 from 14-1. Jerome Harrison has dropped to 65-1 from 75-1. Maurice Jones-Drew has drifted up to 10-1 from 8-1. Thomas Jones has gone to 18-1 from 14-1.
Notable line moves: Since the prop was posted, the line on Frank Gore has dropped to 12-1 from 14-1. Jerome Harrison has dropped to 65-1 from 75-1. Maurice Jones-Drew has drifted up to 10-1 from 8-1. Thomas Jones has gone to 18-1 from 14-1.
QB odds to lead NFL in passing yards
Perennial favorite Peyton Manning and defending champ Matt Schaub stand as the top choices to lead the NFL in passing yards this season, each at odds of 6-1 at the Venetian sports book on the Las Vegas Strip.
Notable line moves: Since the prop was posted, the line on Drew Brees has dropped to 7-1 from 8-1. Jay Cutler has dropped to 16-1 from 18-1. David Garrard and Chad Henne both have gone to 50-1 from 40-1.
Notable line moves: Since the prop was posted, the line on Drew Brees has dropped to 7-1 from 8-1. Jay Cutler has dropped to 16-1 from 18-1. David Garrard and Chad Henne both have gone to 50-1 from 40-1.
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
Wake of the Flood: A cold, clean and sober look at some 2011 NBA futures
Now that the LeBron madness has subsided, here's how some key betting lines regarding the 2010-11 NBA season have settled in ...
The Las Vegas Hilton sports book has the Miami Heat listed at +250 to win the NBA title, with an option of laying -300 the Heat will not win it.
Any sports books still offering in the range of 9-5 on the Heat should have a similar option to wager against Miami. If those books do not have such an option, it's likely they are subpar operations or that they do not care about their image.
The Las Vegas Hilton sports book has the Miami Heat listed at +250 to win the NBA title, with an option of laying -300 the Heat will not win it.
Any sports books still offering in the range of 9-5 on the Heat should have a similar option to wager against Miami. If those books do not have such an option, it's likely they are subpar operations or that they do not care about their image.
British Open betting lines, matchups
No matter where you shop, Tiger Woods is favored to win the British Open, which runs Thursday through Sunday at the Old Course at St. Andrews, Fife, Scotland.
For a fair betting price on Woods, let's look at the Las Vegas Hilton sports book.
Woods is listed at 11-2 at the Hilton, which also gives bettors an opportunity to lay -750 (risk $7.50 to net $1) that Woods will not win the tournament.
For a fair betting price on Woods, let's look at the Las Vegas Hilton sports book.
Woods is listed at 11-2 at the Hilton, which also gives bettors an opportunity to lay -750 (risk $7.50 to net $1) that Woods will not win the tournament.
Baseball All-Star Game betting props
In a popular betting proposition on today's All-Star Game, the over/under on the number of home runs that will be hit by both teams combined stands at 1.5 in Las Vegas, with a premium on the "over."
The Las Vegas Hilton sports book has it 1.5, -150 on the over, +130 on the under.
The South Point and related properties have it 1.5, -165 on the over, +145 on the under.
The Las Vegas Hilton sports book has it 1.5, -150 on the over, +130 on the under.
The South Point and related properties have it 1.5, -165 on the over, +145 on the under.
Wednesday, July 7, 2010
Yes/no propositions to win Super Bowl offered on 18 teams in Vegas
I've championed the cause of two-way, or "yes/no," wagering in sports future books a number of times -- including in this column from 2009.
Yes/no props are an excellent way to keep future books honest. If you don't like Tiger Woods to win a tournament at odds of 3-1, for instance, you should be able to lay minus 400 (risk $4.00 to net $1) or so that he will not win it.
Done right, a yes/no structure ensures both the sports book and the bettor are getting a fair shake.
Yes/no props are an excellent way to keep future books honest. If you don't like Tiger Woods to win a tournament at odds of 3-1, for instance, you should be able to lay minus 400 (risk $4.00 to net $1) or so that he will not win it.
Done right, a yes/no structure ensures both the sports book and the bettor are getting a fair shake.
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