Tuesday, February 24, 2009

In video poker, you've got to know what to hold

In the fine poker novel “Shut Up and Deal,” author Jesse May describes a fictional writer of instructional books named Larry Sandtrap, who appears as a disembodied voice in the mind of the main character, Mickey.

When Mickey was in a poker game, he would often hear Sandtrap intoning facts and figures about probabilities and statistics related to the hand in question. Sandtrap might praise a savvy move grounded in the math of the game but scold Mickey for a miscue such as abandoning sound poker strategy in favor of degenerate-style gambling at the table.

I’ve long considered Bob Dancer, the Las Vegas author and high-stakes professional gambler, a sort of Larry Sandtrap of the video poker world.

Thursday, February 12, 2009

Super Bowl prop payoff is in the details

When the Arizona Cardinals scored two points on a safety in the Super Bowl, the play figured to resonate with gamblers, especially bettors who focus on propositions, or “props” — the sometimes offbeat wagers on various facets of the game.

After all, betting for or against a Super Bowl safety is a perennial favorite of prop players.

Gamblers betting that a safety will occur are enticed by the “juicy” payoff, often in the range of 8-1 or so.

On the other side, some self-styled wise guys preach that if any value exists in the prop, it’s on the other side. Statistics indicate you’re better off taking the “bridge jumper” route and laying 10-1 that no safety will occur.